By Roger Stone CristCharlie Crist's stunning decision to run in the Florida U.S. Senate race as an Independent is based on two assumptions; Crist is a certain loser in the Republican Party Primary against former House Speaker Marco Rubio; and Kendrick Meek winning the Democratic nominee and will, because of his liberalism, own ethics scandals, and underfunding, will underperform among Democrats. "If Crist can capture approximately 50% of the Independents, 25% or GOPers and 30% of Democrats, he would definitely be in the hunt to win the Florida U.S. Senate Race," Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio who first polled Crist as an Independent said. But that is a tall order. Despite his underfunding campaign, former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre would hold a larger percentage of the Democratic base as the Democratic nominee for reasons both ideological and ethnic. Put another way, a stronger showing by the Democrat increases the chances that Marco Rubio wins a three-way race with slightly more than the base Republican vote in Florida. Thus, it really does depend who the 2010 Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate is in determining the ultimate outcome of the Rubio-Crist showdown.