Assertions by Aides to former New York City Mayor, Rudy Giuliani, that they can afford to lose early state contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and win the nomination in later contests in delegate rich states like Florida, New Jersey, New York and other states poised to vote on February 5th, seem to have taken a page from the Republican Presidential campaign strategy of former Texas Governor John B. Connally. If anything, the momentum dynamic of these closely placed early contests will send one or two candidates into Florida on January 29th and the multi-state February 5th primary with substantial forward momentum. Voters have less time to scrutinize the red-hot frontrunner with less time between the pivotal early Caucasus and Primaries. Former Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney holds significant but not insurmountable lead in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Although South Carolina looks more muddled today, Romney would surge there if he wins the two previous contests. Giuliani enjoys a respectable lead in Florida but would see those numbers melt like the New Hampshire snow if Romney gets to the Sunshine State after having won three in a row. Giuliani's continued dominance in the National polls is the product of strong name identification and the missteps by Senator John McCain which caused the Senator's poll numbers to drop like a stone. To give the Giuliani campaign credit, they have worked effectively to galvanize this lead and intensify the Mayor's support by clearly defining the rationale for his candidacy; Giuliani is the right man to lead the war on terrorism. Romney's lead in Iowa and New Hampshire is based on large expenditures for television advertising for which Mr. Romney dipped in to his own pocket. Voter impressions and support for Romney, being newly created by television, is soft. That Giuliani will gain and Romney will slip when America's Mayor begins his campaign television advertising is a foregone conclusion. With the growing possibility that Romney and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee will finish one and two in Iowa, Giuliani could benefit from a split among Evangelical Conservatives between the two in New Hampshire. Such a strategy requires Giuliani to finish a close third in Iowa and a Romney / Huckabee split to win New Hampshire in a multi-candidate field. New Hampshire has a moderate Republican tradition and a large number of Catholics, both potential booms to Giuliani. The Mayor could then finish in the top two in South Carolina but win Florida and surge into February's contests with a head of steam and clinch the nomination there. Given Romney's extensive use of television advertising in Iowa and New Hampshire where he has essentially been running in the clear, it's actually surprising that his lead in both states is not greater. It is important to recognize the ephemeral nature of his poll numbers which can shift dramatically after the first contest and when other candidates begin their television advertising.