New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg chief political advisor Kevin Sheekey thinks it would take $1Billion in campaign funds to overcome the legal obstacles and hereditary impulses of the voters in order to elect an Independent President. Mr. Sheekey was the architect of the effort that utilized finite micro-targeting of voters to elect then Republican Bloomberg in an overwhelming Democratic city and then get him reelected. Sheekey is right about the high cost of being able to communicate with the Nation's voters in order to get them to break the two-party partisan tradition of American politics. The question is whether the opening for such a candidacy exists. Presidential candidacies must have a rationale beyond personal ambition. An Independent candidacy must be able to stake out a constituency on the spectrum to be competitive. For Mayor Michael Bloomberg the viability of running can only be determined when the major Party candidates are de facto selected. In a race against Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, there is little oxygen for the Mayor. The alienated voters in such a contest would be moral values conservative and Evangelicals and Mike Bloomberg is not their cup of tea, although Ron Paul might be and he has run for President on a minor party ticket before. With Paul's new found Internet based campaign cash windfall, he could drain the Republicans. A race between Mitt Romney and Barrack Obama would afford the Mayor a real opportunity to strike out as the moderate between two extremes, pitching his candidacy and reputation for performance to moderate Republicans, moderate Democrats and moderate Independents. Bloomberg can depict Romney as too far right, and Obama as naively left. In a race between Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton, Mayor Bloomberg is more likely to be a spoiler who takes far left votes in Democratic strongholds, playing the role of Ralph Nader, something I suspect Bloomberg has little interest in. Politics in America has always been about base. The Republican candidate, regardless of how extreme or unattractive, can count on 38% of the vote. The Democratic candidate, regardless of how wooden, coached, insincere, and unprincipled, can probably count on 45%. Breaking into this continuum is difficult. The Independent starts at zero and needs to get a plurality of the vote in enough states to total 270 electoral votes. A tall order. You are betting that money can buy a base if a constituency exists for your candidacy. Now I know the polls about the voters' disaffection with both Parties and "politics as usual" are tempting. Independent candidates always run strong in early polling but once Party identification begins to reassert its self, they tend to lose steam. This was true of Wallace in 1968 and Perot in 1992. That's because Independents have no institutional structure under-pinning their candidacy. The two major parties have an army of office holders, small donors and the institutional allegiance of huge swaths of the electorate. Sheekey is betting that the Internet can provide a full substitute for this structure. Sheekey has one big idea and access to the kind of resources it would take to make it real. Now we will see if the opening is created to put that one big idea into play. Mayor Bloomberg's political future will be in the hands of the Delegates to the Republican and Democratic National Conventions. Post script - The New York Post story about Mayor Bloomberg challenging Eliot Spitzer for Governor, while a delightful idea, is completely false. One wonders how the New York Post's Fred Dicker wrote that story without confirmation from anyone.