Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) is pulling far ahead in the Republican primary to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis as Florida’s next governor.
Since entering the race in early 2025, the Congressman has rapidly consolidated Republican backing and built a commanding, insurmountable advantage in the GOP primary.
President Donald J. Trump’s early endorsement has been a game-changer. The president has described him as a “TRULY GREAT and POWERFUL Governor” who would have his “complete and total endorsement.” This support has unified much of the conservative base and deterred stronger challengers.
As the August 18 Republican primary approaches, recent polling shows Donalds in a commanding lead as the Republican primary approaches. A June 2026 survey from the Associated Industries of Florida gave him 54% support among likely GOP primary voters, a dominant 46-point lead over James Fishback at 8%.
Other surveys, including those from Emerson College, Fabrizio Lee & Associates, and Change Research, continue to show him polling strongly in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Key Polls
(Including approximate values)
Stetson University (March/April 2026):
Donalds ~38%, Fishback ~6%, Collins ~5%, Renner ~7%, Undecided ~44%
Emerson College (March/April 2026):
Donalds 46%, Fishback 4%, Collins 4%, Renner 3%, Undecided ~41%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (April 2026):
Donalds 54%, Fishback 9%, Collins 7%, Renner 2%, Undecided ~28%
Change Research (May 2026)
Donalds 48%, Fishback 9%, Collins 8%, Renner 3%, Undecided ~32%
Associated Industries of Florida / McLaughlin (June 2026):
Donalds 54%, Fishback 8%, Collins 5%, Renner 2%, Undecided ~31%
Sources: Stetson University / Florida Politics, Emerson College, Fabrizio Lee & Associates, Change Research, and Associated Industries of Florida (AIF) / McLaughlin & Associates.
Donalds’ fundraising advantage furthers his frontrunner status. He has raised well over $67 million overall, including a record $22.2 million in Q1 2026 alone, and entered June with $65.8 million cash on hand.
This massive financial advantage has driven aggressive advertising along with a sophisticated ground operation, all while also securing his qualification under the Republican Party of Florida’s stringent “10/10/10” thresholds.
In the crowded Republican primary for Florida governor, the Trump-backed candidate faces Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, political activist James Fishback, former House Speaker Paul Renner, and a handful of long-shot candidates.
These polls continue to show the rest of the field collectively stuck in the single digits. Recent developments have further validated Donalds’ commanding lead.
Most notably, the Republican Party of Florida canceled its planned full gubernatorial debate at the Sunshine State Showdown, originally scheduled for June 26 to 27, 2026, after only he met the strict “10/10/10” qualification criteria.
On the general election side, he maintains solid leads in most matchups. Florida Chamber of Commerce polling in May 2026 found him ahead of potential Democratic nominees David Jolly (47%-39%) and Jerry Demings (48%-39%).
Although a handful of outliers point to tighter contests, the broader data strongly favors Congressman Donalds’ bid. Ballotpedia currently rates the race as Solid Republican according to the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections, and Safe Republican per Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Donalds has positioned his campaign around continuing Florida’s conservative momentum, his message resonates powerfully with older voters, conservatives, and the GOP’s most reliable turnout base.
With the August 18, 2026 primary now just weeks away, betting markets and political analysts give the frontrunner overwhelming and growing odds of securing the Republican nomination.
On Polymarket, he currently sits at a 94–95% implied probability of winning the GOP nomination, while Kalshi shows a similarly decisive 93–94%, with over $5.9 million traded on the outcome. Political analysts share this confidence and point to his sustained lead across multiple polls
This record includes the enacted FISHES Act which focuses on fisheries and environmental management, the Restore Florida Water Independence Act, nuclear energy advancement via the Build Nuclear with Local Materials Act, and major immigration and government efficiency reforms. His recent initiatives include immigration biometrics reform, government efficiency “Value Over Cost”, and property tax relief.
His lead remains solid, anchored by superior name recognition, near-perfect policy alignment with Florida’s conservative base, strong presidential endorsement, massive fundraising advantage, and a proven legislative record.
As the August 18 primary nears, Donalds has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to win the GOP nomination, head the Republican ticket this fall, and sustain Florida’s strong hard-right political trajectory.











