The question in 2024, as in 1980: ‘Will you be better off four years from now than you are today?’
Rounding third base, the 2024 presidential campaign resembles the 1980 Reagan-Carter race. Though I don’t anticipate a landslide win for either candidate, there are parallels that could grant Donald Trump a comfortable victory if he heeds political history.
Forty-four years ago, early to mid-October was also rocky for Ronald Reagan, who was either slightly behind in the polls or treading water. Despite President Jimmy Carter’s anemic approval rating and mishandling of the economy and foreign policy, skeptical journalists and political insiders said Reagan might be poorly suited for the job.
One obstacle in Reagan’s path was the fourth opponent in his race against Mr. Carter and Republican turned independent Rep. John Anderson: himself. In his years away from public office, Reagan had somehow adopted the notion that trees created more pollution than cars, which he stated publicly. These types of off-putting misconceptions, along with widespread protests over the Equal Rights Amendment, distracted Reagan from his real target: the Carter economy. Mr. Trump shares this problem when he ignores the Biden-Harris legacy in favor of wasting time on things voters don’t care about, such as crowd sizes or dust-ups with “The View” and Howard Stern.
Early in the fall of 1980, Richard Nixon began telling Reagan that “Carter’s greatest weakness from the standpoint of the average voter is his economic policy. . . . The bigger issue is inflation.” In October, Reagan calmed women’s rights activists by announcing he would appoint the first woman to the Supreme Court. But the campaign messaging was still meandering.
We worked on an economic theme for Reagan’s October appearance at the Oxford Mall in Langhorne, Pa. Mr. Carter had goofed by claiming that real income per person had increased by almost 8% during his administration.
Working aboard our campaign plane, I offered some new language to Reagan for the rally: “In other words, Mr. Carter is trying to tell you that you’re better off than when he was elected. Look around you at the price of food, the price of gasoline, the interest rate you have to pay to buy a house, the amount of taxes taken out of your paycheck. And then ask yourself, are you really better off than you were in 1976?”
Reagan used that language one week later. The seeds were planted. Through memos and phone calls with me, Nixon continued to hammer relentlessly on the economy, pushing Reagan to pinpoint what was on voters’ minds.
Three weeks after the Langhorne rally, Reagan debated Mr. Carter, skewering his opponent by asking the American people: “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
The fundamentals haven’t changed much since 1980. Kamala Harris, like Mr. Carter, can’t change who she is. She is an unreconstructed leftist—George McGovern without the war record. While polls appear to be close, they also reveal Americans’ lack of confidence in her on issues such as foreign policy and the economy.
So to political writers, cable hosts and Washington insiders: When most people wake up in the morning, they think about feeding and housing themselves and their families. On Election Day, most will also wonder if they can count on a future that is safe from the threats of lunatic foreign dictators. And that is why so many have less confidence in Ms. Harris than in Mr. Trump.
With all that weighs against her, the key for Mr. Trump is to force Ms. Harris to own not only the Biden-Harris past but also the Biden-Harris future.
Hence, Mr. Trump must echo Reagan with a twist that prompts voter concerns for what lies ahead: “Ask yourself, will you be better off four years from now than you are today?”