Everyone likes a good steak or a high-quality hamburger, but very soon they could be hard to find and extremely expensive if you can find one, right here in America land of plenty of beef may be nearly inaccessible. In fall 2025, Americans face a beef shortage not seen since before 1951, when cattle numbers reached 82.08 million head, compared to just 28.2 million head in 2025. This decline has driven prices skyward, turning a dietary staple into a luxury. Ground beef, once $3.50 per pound, now exceeds $6 in many areas, with steaks and roasts posting double digit price increases, per USDA data.
A combination of restrictive environmental regulations, escalating production costs, elevated livestock feed prices, and a New World Screwworm outbreak in southern and eastern Mexico where flesh-eating larvae threaten livestock has disrupted supply chains. Beef from northern Mexico appears to be untainted as ranchers there seek testing to prove this to officials at the US Agriculture Department.
Consumers are turning to cheaper cuts raising concerns about how America’s beef industry reached this crisis and what steps can restore affordability as well as abundance. The roots of the beef shortage trace back to a series of policy decisions, economic pressures, and global events.
The 2015 Clean Water Rule passed under the Obama administration, later expanded under the Biden-Harris administration in 2023, tightened regulations on Waters of the United States (WOTUS), restricting access to grazing lands for ranchers. Climate-smart initiatives from the Inflation Reduction Act, imposed costly compliance measures, such as methane reduction programs, on an already strained industry. These regulations of prioritizing environmental goals over food security, have handcuffed ranchers, forcing some to sell off cattle rather than navigate the financial burden.
Domestic and Global economic factors have added to this crisis. Feed prices for soybeans and corn have risen 20–25% since 2021 due to global supply chain disruptions, exacerbating costs for U.S. ranchers disruptions and the war in Ukraine, starting in 2022, spiked costs an additional 30%. Fuel and labor costs, amplified by inflation reaching a high of 8% in 2022, have strained agricultural operations. High interest rates on loans have limited reinvestment in herds, all while labor shortages and pandemic-era spending have reduced farm productivity and increased operational costs, threatening the sustainability of small and mid-sized farms. This resulted in plummeting U.S. cattle inventory, down to 28.2 million head in 2025, with a 10% drop from 2019. Beef production is projected to fall to 26.4 billion pounds in 2025, a 2.1% decline from 2024, while overall food prices have risen 3.4% this year, cooling from an 11% peak in 2022.
Trade policies have played a minor role as the U.S. resumed beef imports from Argentina in 2015 after a 14-year ban due to foot-and-mouth disease, with strict quotas and veterinary inspections ensuring compliance with safety standards, with imports scaling up gradually. The President recently announced that he would increase beef quotas from Argentina after meeting with Argentine President Javier Milei.
Since the 1994 NAFTA agreement, Mexico has been a vital supplier of live cattle to the U.S., typically providing over 1.1 million head annually. However, an ongoing New World Screwworm outbreak in southern Mexico, with cases detected as far north as Veracruz have prompted a U.S. suspension of cattle imports starting May 11, 2025, which remains active with no full resumption announced. In 2024, the U.S. imported 1.52 million metric tons of beef, with Australia (24.3%), Canada (22.6%), Brazil (12.7%), Mexico (14.4%), and Argentina (2.1%) leading the pack. Projections for 2025 show imports rising to 1.71 million metric tons, with Australia’s share increasing to 26.8% and Canada’s dropping to 18.6%.
Despite these imports, they haven’t been enough to offset domestic shortages, and the impact of the beef shortage is hitting consumers hard. Families are facing sticker shock at grocery stores, with many opting for cheaper proteins like chicken or pork. Restaurants, particularly small businesses, are cutting beef-heavy dishes or raising prices. The crisis is driving a cultural change in a country where steak now symbolizes wealth.
For ranchers, the prospects vary. While higher beef prices offer short-term gains, the costs of feed, fuel, and compliance remain sky-high, deterring new ranchers, slowing the rebuild of new herds. Cattle production is a long-term commitment, and growth cycles take years. The USDA estimated beef prices will rise another 3.2% in 2025, with per capita consumption dropping to 55 pounds by 2026. Relief may come by 2026 if herds rebound and global markets stabilize, but there’s no quick fix.
President Trump issued two memoranda on January 20, 2025: Delivering Emergency Price Relief for American Families and Defeating the Cost-of-Living Crisis, which directed deregulatory measures to combat inflationary pressures, including rising food prices, and America First Trade Policy, which focused on boosting U.S. industry competitiveness.
President Trump took immediate action directing the EPA to withdraw its proposed Clean Water Act effluent guidelines for the meat and poultry sector, while targeting the cancellation of USDA regulations regarding payments to poultry growers, and DEI-related provisions in agricultural regulations to slash compliance costs and boost operational efficiency for beef producers. He also enacted energy policy adjustments via Executive Order 14156, declaring a national energy emergency to expand domestic drilling and lower fuel prices, alongside aggressive trade enforcement via phased-in tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese imports to shield U.S. beef from foreign competition.
Furthermore, Trump has initiated herd rebuilding incentives with low-interest USDA loans and Farm Service Agency tax credits, simplifying labor reforms to ease H-2A visa processes amid shortages, and pursued export market expansion through new negotiations with Japan and the EU. All of this, paired with broader tariff strategies aimed at curbing inflation and stabilizing the price of beef for American families.
The beef shortage serves as an alert for America’s food supply chain, it highlights the need for collective solutions, deregulation, cost-efficient practices, and sharper trade policies to ensure a stable and resilient beef industry. As Americans navigate the Supermarket for beef, they are presented with a broader challenge. The real issue isn’t just rationing, it’s building resilience to ensure great steaks remain a staple, not a luxury, in the land of plenty.
